10 things to expect this season

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Another Day, Another Dollar
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The off-season theme in college basketball? Meetings.

Conference officials met behind closed doors to discuss which teams would jump from one league to another. Head coaches gathered at a convention to talk about ethics in their profession. NCAA officials met in their offices to come up with views on major changes in the game.


With so many meetings, you half expected Dilbert to get a job coaching in the Pac-10. Well, enough already.

For the first time since Syracuse clipped the nets in New Orleans last April, there will be college basketball games tomorrow night. Four of the top 25 teams are at Madison Square Garden tomorrow and Friday night for the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, with two games each night.

To get you ready, here are 10 things to expect from this NCAA hoops season:


1. FAMILIAR FOUR

The four teams that entertained fans in New Orleans last spring lost a star player or -- even worse -- a star coach. But all four will return to the NCAAs with a chance to play deep into the Tournament again.

Syracuse, the defending champs, lost freshman Carmelo Anthony to the NBA, but still have the other key players from their 30-5 team. Kansas lost Kirk Hinrich and Nick Collison to the NBA as well, and head coach Roy Williams to North Carolina, but the cupboard was hardly bare for new coach Bill Self. Marquette lost Dwyane Wade, their top player, but not Travis Diener, their top guard.

Which has the best chance to reach San Antonio? Texas, which still is loaded with talent, even after the departure of guard T.J. Ford to the NBA.


2. CHANGES COMING ... EVENTUALLY

Talk of the revamped Big East is exciting, but you'll have to wait. The big changes -- when Louisville vs. Connecticut will be a conference game -- do not take place until the 2005-06 season.

Until then, Cincinnati and Marquette are still in Conference USA, Miami and Virginia Tech still in the Big East, and everyone must deal with an uncomfortable situation.

"The whole realignment is going to have a trickle-down affect," Rutgers coach Gary Waters said. "It's going to bring some major changes. How so, you don't know yet, but certain teams will struggle through this transition."


3. HUSKIES ARE FOR REAL

Connecticut is good -- scary good. And this statement can apply accurately to the men or the women, both ranked No. 1 to start the season.

The men return center Emeka Okafor, the best defensive player in the country, and starting backcourt Ben Gordon (who averaged 19.5 points last season) and Taliek Brown. Add to the mix 6-10 forward Charlie Villanueva, the Blair Academy product who is already a potential NBA first-round pick, and a host of experience role players, and you have your Big East champs.

"It's easier to be an underdog," coach Jim Calhoun said. "But we could have some things go wrong and still be really good, because we're deep."

The women have everyone back from their third straight NCAA title team, including national player of the year Diana Taurasi and a deeper, more experienced supporting cast. Which is to say, more than good enough to dominate the sport. Again.


4. LIVING ON THE BUBBLE

New Jersey teams likely will wait until the final moments before knowing their NCAA Tournament fate.

The Rutgers roster has been in a constant state of flux during the off-season, and the Scarlet Knights will start the season without a true point guard. An NIT appearance would be an accomplishment for them.

Seton Hall will play the first semester without Kelly Whitney, their best (and only) post player, and while their guards are good, it will be hard to break even in the Big East without help up front. They have a shot at an NCAA at-large bid.

Princeton finds itself in the middle of the most wide-open Ivy League race in recent memory, battling Penn, Brown, Yale and even Cornell. The Tigers are improved enough to reclaim the crown.


5. ZIPPING ON THE SLIPPER

Looking for an early tip on a Cinderella pick? Think Akron. The town that gave us LeBron James will have some impact on the college basketball season, too. The Zips return five starters from last season, including the most underrated backcourt in college basketball with Derrick Tarver and Johnny Hollingsworth. They also have a future stud in James' high school chum, Romeo Travis.

Other mid-majors to watch: Ball State, Oakland, Manhattan, Illinois-Chicago, Cal Poly and Northern Arizona. Oh, and Gonzaga and Creighton, but those two don't even belong on this list any more.


6. MAY THE BEST TEAM WIN

Now every freshman will want to do what Anthony did: Show up on campus in the fall, win 30 games and an NCAA title, then leave in the spring to for the NBA lottery and the accompanying millions.

With apologies to top freshmen Brandon Bass of LSU, David Padgett of Kansas and Mustafa Shakur of Arizona, expect the trend to shift in the other direction this year. With so many good teams -- but no great teams -- in college basketball, the squads with the best chemistry will go deepest in March.

"It's going to shift back to the team game, as opposed to previous years when you get a great player and ride him to a championship," Waters said.

The teams that fit? Ask again in February.


7. KING DENG

This script is getting old: A kid becomes a high school star in New Jersey, wins over people with his personality, then packs his bags and heads to Duke. First Bobby Hurley. Then Jason Williams. Now Luol Deng.

The 6-8 forward, who played at Blair Academy, joins a Blue Devils team with high expectations: Four starters return from a squad expected to end the mini-drought of Final Four appearances.

Coach Mike Krzyzewski went as far to say Deng could be the best player at Duke and possibly in the country. Can you say, pressure?

"It would be pressure if I were going on the floor by myself and it was 1-on-5," said Deng, a freshman of the year candidate. "There is no pressure with four other guys on the court, and they're all wearing the same color."


8. BEST vs. BEST

The top reason to like college basketball -- after March Madness and the great conference rivalries -- is the incredible matchups. Why dodge an opponent, like some teams do in college football? Here, playing the best is rewarded in March, when the selection committee picks teams.

A few games that stick out: Connecticut at North Carolina (Jan. 17) -- an early measuring stick for Roy Williams and the Tar Heels against the best in the Big East. Duke vs. Texas (Dec. 20, in New York) -- great opportunity for local fans to see another loaded Krzyzewski team. Kentucky vs. Michigan State (Dec. 13) -- both teams should go on to win their conferences. Arizona vs. Florida (Nov. 28) -- two of the most exciting teams in the country.


9. ADDRESS CHANGES

Back in their heyday, when Dean Smith and John Wooden were battling in the Final Four, who would have dreamt North Carolina and UCLA would miss the NCAA Tournament in the same year, and have coaching changes?

The two embattled coaches, Matt Doherty and Steve Lavin, are out. The saviors are Williams, who leaves Kansas to coach his alma mater, and Ben Howland, who returns to his Califonia roots from Pittsburgh.

Howland has the tougher job, by far. Williams inherits a thin team, but one that has three or four pro prospects on the roster. The Tar Heels should return to the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins are a year or two away.


10. GOING DOWN

One team managed to lose its star player to the NBA, get its head coach fired and land in a big mess with the NCAA investigators. Yes, Georgia is on its way to the bottom of the SEC, with a bullet.

Indiana also will take a step back this season with an inexperienced front court. So will Oregon, after losing Luke Ridnour and Luke Jackson. Pittsburgh will suffer without Howland and Brandin Knight. Maryland has lost eight starters in two years and will move back to the pack in the ACC.

www.nj.com
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
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General, one correction.
Oregon did not lose both Lukes. Ridnour turned pro, but Luke Jackson is back in school for his senior year. Prep All-American Aaron Brooks is slated to replace Ridnour at PG.
 

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